THE NEW GREAT GAME: U.S.–CHINA COMPETITION OVER CRITICAL MINERALS IN PAKISTAN

Abstract

The twenty-first century has witnessed a reconfiguration of global power rivalries, with critical minerals emerging as strategic assets at the center of economic, technological, and security agendas. This paper explores the intensifying competition between the United States and China over access to and control of Pakistan’s mineral resources, situating the contest within the broader framework of the “New Great Game.” Pakistan possesses significant reserves of copper, gold, lithium, and rare earth elements, most notably at Reko Diq and Saindak, which are vital for clean energy systems, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and defense industries. China has established a strong foothold through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), securing long-term stakes in extraction and infrastructure that integrate Pakistan’s resources into its global supply chains. The United States, in contrast, has recently sought to re-engage Pakistan’s mineral sector through resource diplomacy, partnerships with multinational firms such as Barrick Gold, and alignment with global initiatives like the Minerals Security Partnership. Adopting a neorealist and geoeconomic lens, the study analyzes how this rivalry is reshaping Pakistan’s political economy, regional alignments, and developmental choices. It highlights Pakistan’s strategic dilemmas in balancing competing great power interests while grappling with governance challenges, security risks in Balochistan, and the imperative of sustainable resource management. The findings underscore that minerals are not merely economic commodities but instruments of statecraft, shaping future technological trajectories and geopolitical configurations. Ultimately, Pakistan’s mineral wealth positions it as both a potential beneficiary and a battleground in the unfolding U.S.–China competition, with profound implications for South Asia’s security and the global mineral order.