GRAND STRATEGY AND THE FUTURE OF US-CHINA RELATIONS: CONFRONTATION, COMPETITION, OR COOPERATION

Abstract

This study applies a grand-strategy lens to analyze the evolving U.S.-China relationship and to assess whether their interaction is best characterized by confrontation, competition, or cooperation. Drawing on a hybrid theoretical framework that integrates realism, liberalism, and constructivism, the paper maps how material capabilities, institutional interdependence, and identity-driven narratives jointly shape strategic choices. It identifies and categorizes the core domains of interaction security (Taiwan, South China Sea, military modernization), economic and technological rivalry (supply chains, semiconductors, “de-risking”), and selective areas of cooperation (climate change, pandemic response) and explains how each domain produces distinct incentives for confrontation, competition, or cooperation. Using qualitative, interpretive methods based on secondary sources, the study conducts thematic content analysis and a scenario-based assessment (confrontation–competition–cooperation) guided by strategic indicators such as military posture, economic policy, and diplomatic engagement. The paper argues that U.S.-China relations are unlikely to fall into a single fixed pattern; instead, a fluid and adaptive strategic equilibrium will persist, with outcomes contingent on leadership choices, institutional mechanisms, and management of mutual vulnerabilities. By synthesizing material, institutional, and ideational drivers, the study offers policy-relevant insights for managing competition while preserving limited, necessary cooperation to maintain global stability.