THE UKRAINE PEACE DEAL EXPOSED: A GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS OF US–RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY

Abstract

This paper is a critical review of the so-called 28-point peace agreement in the context of Ukraine, which is highly dependent on the geopolitical interests of the United States and Russia. The plan, given as a framework to end the current conflict, is founded on the leaked diplomatic documents, and it casts serious doubts of territorial concessions, politic restructuring, and economic dependency. Applying the prism of the geopolitical theory and the conflict resolution literature, the following paper will analyze the weight of the peace deal to Ukrainian sovereignty. Results indicate that the bargain is an asymmetric settlement that tends to benefit the interests of Russia which offers sanctions relief, territorial recognition and strategic domination of Ukrainian critical energy and industrial infrastructures in disproportional measures. Ukraine, in the meantime, receives some significant political and territorial blows. The article argues that the negotiations are representative of a bigger trend of great-power diplomacy where smaller countries are left to bear the cost of geopolitical trade-offs. It provides recommendations related to the protection of Ukrainian sovereignty and the territorial integrity and autonomy of the country, such that any peace structure is respectful towards it.