IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOOD FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN DISTRICT SWAT, PAKISTAN

Abstract

Climate change is one the major challenge to flood forecasting and early warning systems (FF&EWS) in the flood prone regions of the world. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the effectiveness of FF&EWS in District Swat, Pakistan, an area highly vulnerable to glacial melting, erratic rainfall and flash floods. Primary data were collected through questionnaires, interviews, and field observations, complemented by secondary data from hydrological and meteorological records. Findings reveal that climate-induced variations, such as increased glacial meltwater and unpredictable precipitation patterns, have reduced the accuracy of existing forecasting models, leading to delays and inefficiencies in early warning dissemination. Additionally, limited technological infrastructure, inadequate community awareness, and institutional constraints further weaken the system’s performance.  Climate Change have great impacts on different sectors that weaken flood forecasting and early warning system in Swat District. The study highlights the urgent need for integrating advanced forecasting tools, enhancing local capacity-building, and strengthening community-based early warning mechanisms to improve disaster preparedness. The research analysis shows that structural measures, non- structural measures and strategies are very important to mitigate climate change impacts and enhance the resilience of flood-prone communities in district Swat.