THE PAKISTAN-INDIA WATER DISPUTE IN THE ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE: POLICY CHALLENGES AND WAY FORWARD

Abstract

The dispute over the Indus River Basin between Pakistan and India is becoming critical due to the pressures posed by climate change. This Paper discusses how melting glaciers, changing rainfall patterns, and rising temperatures are redefining water access and amplifying security risks in South Asia. It assesses the intersection of environmental stressors with geopolitical tensions in the Indus Basin using Environmental Security Theory. Key Findings indicate that existing Indus Water Treaty’s (IWT) framework is straining as climate change is already reducing river flows and intensifying seasonal variability. Simultaneoulsy, the competition for scarce water resources is increased due to socio-economic factors (agricultural water, population growth, and developmental projects). Under Climate stress, the shortcomings of IWT are firm provisions and its lack of flexibility for changing conditions. This study uses a qualitative, case-study approach based on secondary sources to analyze recent developments (e.g. hydro-project disputes, treaty challenges) and how they demonstrate broader water security issues. In conclusion, unless flexible cooperation is pursued, climate change acts as a “threat multiplier”. This paper recommends improving basin wide data sharing and management, updating water sharing mechanisms, and incorporating climate projections into bilateral agreements to put off conflict and ensure sustainable water security.