NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL IN SOUTH ASIA

Abstract

The challenge of nuclear arms control in South Asia remains one of the most complex and pressing issues for regional and global security. Since the 1998 nuclear tests, India and Pakistan have emerged as declared nuclear powers, with arsenals closely tied to national identity, strategic doctrine, and perceptions of vulnerability. While nuclearization has prevented all-out war, it has lowered the threshold for limited conflicts, increasing the risk of miscalculation and inadvertent escalation. The enduring rivalry rooted in unresolved political disputes, particularly over Kashmir continues to impede the development of durable arms control frameworks. Crises such as Kargil (1999), the 2001–2002 standoff, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, the Pulwama–Balakot episode (2019), and the 2025 Pahalgam incident underscore the fragility of deterrence in a nuclearized environment lacking robust communication and crisis-management mechanisms. Emerging technologies including hypersonic missiles, autonomous drones, ballistic missile defenses, and artificial intelligence further compress decision-making timelines and blur the line between conventional and nuclear warfare. Compounding these challenges, South Asia is enmeshed in broader global rivalries, particularly the U.S.–China strategic competition, which has deepened the triangular nuclear equation. Beyond strategic considerations, any nuclear conflict could trigger catastrophic humanitarian and environmental consequences. Sustainable arms control in the region thus requires technical safeguards, transparency, political reconciliation, and cooperative approaches to human and environmental security. South Asia’s nuclear stability is not merely a regional concern but a cornerstone of global peace.