CHINA–PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR (CPEC) PERCEPTIONS AND PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR PAKISTAN–CHINA STRATEGIC RELATIONS: THE MODERATING ROLE OF ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between public perceptions of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and support for Pakistan–China strategic relations, with economic expectations functioning as a moderating variable. Drawing on quantitative survey data from a representative sample of Pakistani citizens, the analysis reveals that positive perceptions of CPEC’s economic benefits are significantly associated with stronger support for broader bilateral strategic cooperation. Specifically, a majority of respondents view CPEC favourably; for example, in one national survey, 72% of participants indicated that CPEC would benefit Pakistan’s socio‑economic landscape, and over 50% associated it with enhanced economic prospects. Furthermore, favourable public sentiment toward China as a strategic partner has strengthened over time, with recent evidence indicating rising goodwill tied to tangible CPEC‑linked outcomes such as infrastructure development and improved connectivity. The moderating analysis demonstrates that economic expectations—particularly expectations of job creation, income growth, and business opportunities—intensify the positive effect of CPEC perceptions on strategic support. In contrast, lower economic expectations attenuate this relationship, suggesting that subjective anticipations of future gains shape how citizens translate project perceptions into foreign policy preferences. These findings indicate that economic optimism plays a critical role in legitimizing international strategic partnerships and underscore the importance of managing public expectations through transparent communication of economic outcomes. This research contributes to the literature on public opinion, economic diplomacy, and strategic foreign relations in the context of large‑scale transnational initiatives.