CRIME TRENDS AND SPATIAL PATTERNS IN ISLAMABAD BETWEEN (2019–2024), A TEMPORAL AND ZONAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

Urban crime dynamics in rapidly expanding capital cities require systematic temporal and spatial evaluation to inform evidence-based governance strategies. Islamabad, often perceived as comparatively safer than other metropolitan centers in Pakistan, has experienced noticeable fluctuations in crime patterns over recent years. This study examines officially reported crime data from Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) between 2019 and 2024 to assess temporal trends, spatial analysis, and demographic characteristics of accused individuals. By using Routine Activity Theory and Social Disorganization Theory, the study identifies a post-pandemic escalation in crime between 2021 and 2023, followed by a moderate decline in 2024. Property-related offenses consistently dominate the crime structure, while violent crimes persist without significant structural reduction. Spatial concentration is evident in commercially active and rapidly urbanizing police zones. The majority of accused individuals fall within the 18–40 age bracket, indicating the role of demographic and socioeconomic pressures. The findings highlight the importance of GIS-based policing, standardized digital reporting mechanisms, and youth-oriented social interventions. By providing a structured longitudinal assessment of Islamabad’s crime landscape, the study contributes to empirical urban criminology research in South Asia.