SYSTEMIC COMPRESSION AND FRAGILE DETERRENCE: ESCALATION DYNAMICS IN NUCLEAR SOUTH ASIA

Abstract

This study examines how technological acceleration and evolving operational domains are reshaping deterrence dynamics in nuclearized rivalries, with a specific focus on South Asia. It introduces the concept of ‘systemic compression’ to explain how advances in precision-strike capabilities, surveillance networks, unmanned systems, and information technologies compress decision-making timelines and transform escalation behavior between India and Pakistan. Building on structural realism and contemporary deterrence scholarship, the article argues that instability in South Asia stems not from the collapse of nuclear deterrence but from the erosion of the conventional deterrence layer operating beneath it. Systemic compression operates through three mechanisms: temporal compression of political decision cycles, domain simultaneity in military operations, and externalized escalation through early international involvement. Through a comparative analysis of the 2016 Uri crisis, the 2019 Balakot crisis, and the 2025 India–Pakistan crisis, the study demonstrates how escalation sequencing has shifted from gradual hierarchical patterns toward rapid multi-domain interactions. The findings suggest that while nuclear weapons continue to prevent major war, stability increasingly depends on the resilience of conventional deterrence and crisis management institutions under technologically compressed conditions. This study contributes to international relations scholarship by extending debates on the stability–instability paradox and proposing systemic compression as a framework for understanding fragile deterrence in contemporary strategic environments.