CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLACIER RETREAT IN NORTHERN PAKISTAN

Abstract

The study focuses on the effects of climate change on glacier melting in Northern Pakistan as a critical issue of diminishing glacier mass and its water security and socio-economic consequences. The objectives of the research are to examine hydro-climatic drivers, quantify the changes in glaciers, and evaluate the hazards that are related to them, including the Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). To answer the research question, a mixed-method, desk-based approach was employed, which relied on remote sensing datasets (Sentinel-2, Landsat, ICESat-2, GRACE) and climate data (ERA5) and was supplemented by time series analysis and case study assessment of the Shisper Glacier. The findings reveal a major change in the Karakoram glaciers' mass balance to -2.23 Gt/yr (2018-2023) and +0.10 Gt/yr (2000-2010), and an increase in temperature by about 1.3 °C/decade and a rise in the snowline by almost 1000 meters. The area of the glaciers decreased by approximately 10.9 percent in the period 2000-2023, and in times of extreme events, the discharge of GLOF was 226.53 m 3/s. The results affirm that the melting of glaciers is escalating more rapidly due to temperature changes, risks of hazards are growing, and the ability to provide water to more than 268 million people is at risk. The paper concludes that the promotion of climate resilience and the ability to manage water resources sustainably is impossible without the urgent implementation of policies, the development of an improved monitoring system, and community-based adaptation measures.