ADAPTIVE CAPACITY AND SOCIAL RESILIENCE: EXAMINING CLIMATE RELATED PERMANENT RELOCATION IN LOW INCOME URBAN SETTLEMENTS

Abstract

Climate‑related permanent relocation is an increasingly critical challenge for low‑income urban settlements in the Global South. While existing literature emphasises hazard exposure, the mechanisms through which adaptive capacity and social resilience mediate or amplify relocation risk remain undertheorised. This mixed‑methods study examines 350 household surveys and 12 in‑depth interviews across three low‑income settlements in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, to investigate associations between adaptive capacity, social resilience, and climate‑related permanent relocation. Using a moderated mediation framework, we find that higher adaptive capacity is significantly associated with lower likelihood of forced relocation (multinomial logistic relative risk ratio [RRR] = 0.31, 95% CI [0.19, 0.50], p < .001). Exploratory evidence suggests that this association may be moderated by social resilience, but the interaction effect was not robust to cluster‑bootstrap or multiple‑comparison corrections (wild cluster bootstrap 95% CI [0.96, 2.31]; Bonferroni‑adjusted p = .23). We therefore interpret moderation as suggestive, not definitive. Qualitative findings from 12 interviews (illustrative cases, not a validated typology) reveal three relocation pathways   acute, erosive, and anticipatory and highlight a potential “bonding capital trap” where strong intra‑community ties may delay relocation but increase long‑term hazard exposure in the absence of bridging capital. Due to the cross‑sectional design, all findings are associational and require validation with longitudinal data. We conclude with policy recommendations for climate‑resilient land tenure, decentralised early warning systems, and adaptive social protection that includes migration support.