URBAN SPRAWL AND ITS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURAL LAND, VEGETATION AND WATER BODIES: A GIS AND REMOTE SENSING BASED ANALYSIS OF MULTAN TEHSIL, PAKISTAN (2000-2020)

Abstract

Urban sprawl is a significant driver of agricultural land loss and environmental degradation in rapidly growing cities. This study evaluates the impact of urban expansion on mango orchards, vegetation cover and water bodies in Multan Tehsil, Pakistan, between 2000 and 2020, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing and socio-economic surveys. Multi temporal Landsat imagery was analyzed through supervised classification and post classification comparison to quantify land use and land cover (LULC) changes, while structured questionnaires and interviews captured socio economic drivers of orchard conversion. Results indicate that mango orchards declined from 301.68 km² in 2000 to 158.61 km² in 2020, while built-up areas expanded from 59.73 km² to 207.10 km². Survey findings show that 51% of orchard owners sold land due to lucrative economic offers and 37% cited the desire for improved residential environments. Other factors driving urban expansion include infrastructure development, low land prices and employment opportunities. Despite awareness of orchard loss, 66% of respondents expressed satisfaction with urban development, highlighting a socio environmental trade off. Declines in water bodies and vegetation cover further indicate ecological pressures associated with unplanned urbanization. The study demonstrates that urban sprawl in Multan is largely economically and spatially driven, with market incentives outweighing agricultural considerations. Although mango production initially remained stable due to intensification, continued orchard loss poses long term risks to food security, rural livelihoods and environmental sustainability. These findings underscore the need for integrated urban planning, regulatory enforcement and sustainable orchard management to balance development with agricultural preservation, providing evidence-based guidance for policymakers in similar developing regions.