ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CEREAL CROP PRODUCTION IN PAKISTAN

Abstract

This paper endeavors at analyzing the effect of climate change on cereal crop production in Pakistan in 1990-2024 with a particular focus on the contribution of temperature, precipitation, CO₂ emissions and extreme flood events. Wheat is the staple cereal crop and is sensitive to climate extremes and forms a vital part of the country's food security. The study uses Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to analyze not only the long run relationships but also the short run relationships between climate variables and wheat yield. The results show that there is a high long-term cointegration relationship between the variables of climate and wheat production. The results indicate that the effect of flood event on wheat production is quite negative, whereas the CO₂ emissions have positive fertilization effect in the short term. The positive effect is, however, not the whole story and does not outweigh the overall negative effects of climate change. The study concludes that climate change, especially in the form of extreme weather shocks, is a big challenge for wheat productivity in Pakistan. It calls for specific policy interventions to boost climate resilience, strengthen water management systems, and increase the support for farmers to safeguard food security and rural livelihoods in a climate-driven environment of greater adversity.