BEYOND THE MIDDLE EAST: ABRAHAM ACCORD, MUSLIM WORLD ALIGNMENTS AND PAKISTAN'S POLICY DILEMMA

Abstract

The Abraham Accords (2020), signed during Trump's first term in office, decreed the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab states in the Middle East under US stewardship, projecting a significant transformation of regional geopolitics. Nonetheless, the recent expansion drive, often labeled as Abraham Accords 2.0, is a modified and more resolute version of the past effort. This realignment, driven by a narrative of common security threats and opportunities alongside more coercive diplomacy, has the potential to enlarge its scope and focus, baiting Muslim countries inside and beyond the Middle Eastern region. The success of this initiative primarily hinges on the US's ability to demonstrate how pragmatic states' national interests exceedingly outweigh historical religious grievances and ideological resistance. In contrast, the Abraham Accords experience divergent trajectories across the Muslim world, particularly in non-Arab countries like Pakistan and Turkey, where participation is far more complicated due to domestic constraints, past diplomatic stances, and other geopolitical realities —the China factor.  This study examines two critical dimensions related to the Accord's future: the expansion of partnerships in general across various Muslim-majority countries and Pakistan's unique policy dilemma in navigating this emerging landscape, balancing relationships with the West without antagonizing China. Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Oman, Qatar, Syria and other Muslim countries weigh normalization of relations with Israel against US security and economic guarantees and incentives. In contrast, the case for Pakistan is different, where, besides domestic barriers, evolving stronger ties with China and divorcing the Kashmir cause would hold center stage. To answer these questions, this research integrates a neoclassical realist lens with constructivist critiques as a theoretical framework in order to explain the stark divergence in Muslim-world responses. Methodologically, the research combines qualitative analysis with integrated SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) and PESSTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Security, Technological, Ecological and Legal) frameworks. Findings suggest that while embracing the normalization drive by Gulf and other Muslim states may not be that difficult due to economic and strategic gains, Pakistan will resist overt acceptance due to obvious reasons, most importantly, the Kashmir-Palestine linkage. This arrangement, however, signals a potential fracture within the Muslim world, manifesting a clear bifurcation between pragmatist and ideological blocs. Ultimately, the Accords highlight the conflicting perspectives of material incentives and identity-driven or ideology-driven sovereign foreign policy, where Pakistan's strategic choices serve as a bellwether for the broader region's geopolitics.