CONTESTED MULTIPOLARITY IN THE INDOPACIFIC: US–CHINA RIVALRY AND MIDDLEPOWER HEDGING

Abstract

The Indo-Pacific region is undergoing structural transformation towards a geopolitical order which is significantly different from the zero-sum geopolitical architecture of cold war, rigid logic of uni-polarity and utopian multi-polar world order. Amplified by Trump’s second term, in 2025, the rapid advancement of China's military modernization, the rise of artificial intelligence and semiconductor supply chains as focal points of strategic and technological competition, and the growing "hedging" behavior of a number of middle and smaller powers have all shifted the regional order. Consequently, eroding America’s unchallenged supremacy in the region. Analysis of strategic environment reveals that the notion of “great power dynamics” is analytically inadequate as the contemporary Indo-Pacific is marked by profound economic interdependence, contested multilateralism and aspiring to a strategic autonomy without rigid alignment by many actors. Based on three key concepts, neorealism, constructivism, and geoeconomics - the paper explores how Indo-Pacific security has evolved, straining the "America First" - U.S. alliance architecture, and how minilateral and extra-regional alliances have become a response to Chinese revisionism. The paper suggests that agency by a multitude of middle powers and littoral states navigating an era of contested multipolarity that is the most consequential factor driving regional order rather than the US-China dyad.