NAVIGATING THE SUPERPOWER TRIANGLE: PAKISTAN'S FOREIGN POLICY DYNAMICS BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

Abstract

Pakistan is one of the most geopolitically crucial countries in the modern world standing between two competing geopolitical interests of the two suzerain powers of the world: the US and the People's Republic of China. The increasing degree of complexity of Pakistan's foreign policy in the US–China–Pakistan triangular dynamic since the Cold War and the impact of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) on the foreign policy landscape of Pakistan is discussed in this article. This article is based on the concepts of alliance theory, strategic autonomy frameworks and balance of power analysis, which suggests that Pakistan has been following a hedging policy, i.e. diversifying its economic and security ties with China while working on the strategic balance with the United States to prevent strategic abandonment. In the face of systematic competition, this balancing act has become even more difficult to sustain, especially amid growing US–China rivalry. It analyses four thematic aspects of this triangular relationship: security and military cooperation, economic interdependence, ideological and normative convergence and regional rivalry in the South and Central Asia region. This indicates that Pakistan is facing a structural problem where its reliance on China and lack of confidence in the U.S. could see it become a junior ally in a new Sino-centric regional order with potentially negative impact on its strategic autonomy and domestic political economy