CIRCULAR ECONOMY, ECOSYSTEM VALUATION, AND GENDERED RURAL LIVELIHOOD RESILIENCE: ASSESSING WOMEN’S ADAPTIVE CAPACITY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE IN PAKISTAN

Abstract

Climate change has become a critical challenge for rural livelihoods in developing countries, particularly for women who depend heavily on agriculture and ecosystem resources for their economic survival. In Pakistan, increasing climate-related risks, including floods, droughts, water scarcity, land degradation, and declining agricultural productivity, have intensified livelihood vulnerability among rural households. Women face greater adaptation constraints due to limited access to financial resources, land ownership, technology, climate information, and institutional support. This study develops an integrated framework to examine the role of circular economy practices and ecosystem valuation in enhancing women’s adaptive capacity and rural livelihood resilience under climate change in Pakistan.Using a panel data econometric approach, the study constructs a balanced panel dataset of rural regions of Pakistan over the study period to analyze the dynamic relationship between circular economy adoption, ecosystem services, gender empowerment, and livelihood resilience. The empirical analysis employs Panel ARDL–PMG, Fixed Effects (FE), Random Effects (RE), and System GMM estimation techniques to capture both short-run and long-run effects while addressing endogeneity, reverse causality, and omitted variable bias. The model incorporates key indicators including circular economy practices, ecosystem service valuation, women’s empowerment, institutional quality, climate vulnerability, and socioeconomic factors.The expected empirical results indicate that circular economy practices, sustainable ecosystem management, and improved institutional support positively enhance women’s adaptive capacity and rural livelihood resilience by creating alternative income opportunities, improving resource efficiency, and reducing climate vulnerability. However, financial constraints, gender inequality, weak institutional mechanisms, and limited access to climate information may negatively influence adaptation outcomes. The study provides important policy implications for promoting gender-responsive climate strategies, sustainable resource management, circular economic development, and climate-resilient rural livelihoods in Pakistan.