WATER SECURITY IN THE INDUS BASIN UNDER CLIMATE STRESS: FUTURE CHALLENGES, GOVERNANCE, AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION

Abstract

The Indus River is one of the world’s most important river systems. It benefits over 300 million people. Its water plays a fundamental role in agriculture, domestic supply, power generation and industrial use. But climate change is now threatening water security in the region, as evidenced by events such as retreating glaciers in the Himalayan mountains, changes in monsoons, floods and droughts. This article comprehensively analyses these challenges and examines future scenarios. Various key findings suggest that glacier melt may lead to short-term increases in water availability, but there are risks of long-term decreases in water availability after 2050. Per capita water availability in some parts of the basin is already below 1,000 cubic meters. The population living around the basin is expected to reach 283 million by 2050. Per capita water availability will further decrease by 2050 due to increasing population and climate change. The 1960 Indus Water Treaty seeks to review data sharing, joint monitoring and benefit sharing, otherwise this water treaty may become obsolete in the face of non-stationary hydrological conditions. The future strategy for the Indus Basin in the face of climate change should rely on the development of its infrastructure (For example, new dams like Kalabagh Dam and Diamer Bhasha), which will improve irrigation efficiency and save 20 to 30 percent of water. For a secure future of the Indus Basin, cross-border cooperation through informal diplomacy and administrative diplomacy should be promoted. Climate change in this region calls for resilient governance. The metabolic rift theory explains how capitalist production has disrupted the relationship between life and nature. Due to this disruption, the Indus Basin has become vulnerable to climate change because most of the Indus Basin, which is located in two large countries, is also vulnerable to climate change. Because the per capita presence of trees in both Pakistan and India is very low. And the water storage capacity is also low, especially in Pakistan. Due to industrial development around the world, the Indus Basin is completely vulnerable to climate change.