SHIFTING SANDS: POWER REALIGNMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AFTER THE ARAB SPRING

Abstract

Beginning in late 2010, the Arab Spring was a revolution concerning MENA politics. Seemingly simple demands for political reform, social justice, and job opportunities soon snowballed into regime changes and wars. This is what concerned civil instability. The subsequent chaos redrew political maps and shifted power dynamics across the region. The purpose behind this research is to understand this unprecedented disruption that was the Arab Spring, with emphasis on sub-state and non-state actors, new alliances, and the scope of direct intervention. The Spring had set a chain reaction that caused new dynamic actors to enter the scene. Previously, Middle Eastern politics operated through the motor nations of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran, each, to differing degrees, steering the region through religion, military, and politics. The monarchy traditionally is the leading force in the Arab world, but has the ostracized Gulf nations. Regional economic crisis, following power shifts made Egypt lose its influence in the region. On the other hand, the blockade of Qatar and Yemen conflicts raised Arabian and Emirati Saudi foreign policy integration to unprecedented levels. The enhance of Iran’s influence in Iraq, Syria and Yemen reflects a network of ideological proxies that fill regions where state power has collapsed. As their economic interests and military investments grow, so does their intention to fill leadership voids. Turkey is now emerging as an active competitor in the region after directly intervening in Libya and Syria, aiding the jihadist factions in Syria and getting aligned with Qatar to oppose the Saudi capitalist bloc. Iran is now using power projection as a means of expanding its borders with backing of sectarian militias to further increase tensions with Sunni rivals. While this is happening, the Chinese and Russian forces are increasing their foothold in the area due to the lack of US presence which previously held a monopoly over the region. China is rapidly expanding their investments there, while Russia intervened militarily in favor of the Assad regime during the Syrian civil war, drawing borders in these violence seized countries. With the rise of the Arab Spring comes the birth of ISIS, who claimed to have violent control of territories across Iraq and Syria, heightening security risks in the area even further.